Crises make planning impossible. Yet leaders must still make decisions. Why traditional approaches fail—and why clarity becomes a key competency.
Crises rarely give warning. They strike—quietly or with full force. This is how Mirjam Berle describes in *Klarheit* the moment that turned her leadership reality upside down: a raid on the German Football Association, just a few days after she took office. Two hundred officials, camera crews at the door, a system in a state of emergency. What followed was not a textbook case, but a stress test for judgment, composure, and the ability to act.
Herein lies the core problem: In turbulent times, traditional management approaches fail. They are suited for stability, not for uncertainty. They fail when emotions run high, information is lacking, and decisions must be made under pressure. Berle’s diagnosis is clear: The problem is not a lack of knowledge, but a lack of clarity at the decisive moment.
When systems fail and people react
Crises do not unfold in a linear fashion. They come in waves, destabilizing organizations—and, above all, the people within them. Leaders lose their bearings, teams react frantically, and individuals get caught in mental loops. Neuroscience explains this: the brain prioritizes threats. Fear of loss and a focus on negativity direct attention toward risks rather than opportunities. At the same time, the system switches to alarm mode—emotions take over, and reason recedes into the background.
The result: People act too quickly. Or not at all. They analyze endlessly. Or resort to frantic action. Both lead to the same outcome: a loss of effectiveness. Using numerous real-world examples—from failed startups to life-threatening diagnoses—Berle demonstrates that this pattern is universal. Different situations, same dynamics: uncertainty destroys clarity, and without clarity, there can be no sound decisions.
The C.O.L.D. Water Method as a Navigation Aid
The key lies in an unassuming moment: the pause. Berle describes this turning point precisely—the moment when, after a breach of trust, she does not react impulsively but pauses. Despite her anger, despite the pressure, she chooses to take a deliberate step: assertive, controlled communication. This moment is more than self-control: it is strategic leadership. The logic behind it: a space for thought emerges between stimulus and reaction. In this space, a reflex becomes a decision. This is exactly where the C.O.L.D. Water Method comes in—not as a theory, but as a practical model for taking action in uncertain times.
The method translates neuropsychological processes into a clear four-phase structure:
C – Consequence: process emotions, make sense of them
O – Outcome: clarify goals, define direction
L – Leverage: identify and activate resources
D – Doing: act consistently
This structure follows the logic of the nervous system in stressful situations—from shock through adaptation to action. The difference from traditional models: The method consciously uses emotions as a source of information rather than suppressing them.
This is not a soft skill, but hard decision-making logic. It is grounded in research from neuropsychology, behavioral therapy, and positive psychology. Emotions have a massive influence on decisions—those who ignore them make poorer decisions.
From Concept to Practice
The book’s strength lies in its practical application. Berle doesn’t stop at abstract models, but shows how the method works in practice:
– A leader who must lead without answers.
– An entrepreneur whose business model is collapsing.
– People caught between professional and personal expectations.
A key tool: consciously confronting the worst-case scenario. Instead of suppressing vague fears, they are made concrete. The result: uncertainty loses its power, and opportunities for action become visible. Additional tools—such as the change curve or structured reflection questions—bring order to emotional chaos and enable access to the brain’s executive functions.
Strength with clear boundaries
Berle openly acknowledges the limitations of her method: It is no substitute for therapy in cases of severe mental illness. It does not resolve systemic blockages. It does not guarantee perfect solutions. This is crucial. The method strengthens an individual’s capacity for action, but does not automatically change structural conditions. In organizations with rigid power structures, its influence remains limited. This is precisely where a central question for the business world arises: How can individual clarity and structural change be combined?
Berle’s central thesis is clear: It is not the crisis that matters, but the ability to remain clear-headed within it. The C.O.L.D. Water Method offers a practical tool for this. No promise of salvation, no theoretical construct, but a manageable approach to real uncertainty. In a world where stability is becoming the exception, clarity becomes a strategic resource. Or, as Berle puts it: “Cold water gets warmer when you move in it.” The crucial question is not whether organizations end up in cold water. But how they swim in it.
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief Sabine Hockling founded WIR SIND DER WANDEL. A business journalist and SPIEGEL bestselling author, she has been exploring the changes in our working world for over 20 years. As an author, editor, and ghostwriter, she regularly publishes non-fiction books—since 2023 through DIE RATGEBER VERLAG, the publishing house she founded.
Source: wirsindderwandel.de
